Risk x win-rate matrix
Each cell is the estimated pass rate. Compare rows before raising risk.
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Prop Firm Challenge Calculator
See how a CFD prop firm challenge could play out under your own rules. The model runs many simulated trade paths from your win rate, payoff ratio, risk per trade and drawdown limits, and reports an estimate — not a prediction or a promise.
Direct answer
A prop firm challenge calculator runs many simulated trade paths through the rule set you enter. This page models CFD account-equity rules: profit target, daily loss, total or trailing drawdown, minimum trading days and optional best-day cap. The pass rate is a model estimate under those assumptions, not a prediction or promise.
Strategy and challenge
10,000 seeded pathsEditable starting points. Confirm the current firm rules before paying for a challenge.
Rule boundaries
CFD equity modelUse 0 for no best-day cap.
Pass probability
Win rate to pass probability
The current risk and rule set stay fixed while strategy win rate changes.
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See what a real trade would cost you
Before you place this, compare brokers on the one number that matters — the all-in cost of spread and commission — using the same documented assumptions as the calculators.
Compare broker trading costs →Broker availability, products and leverage vary by country and jurisdiction. Educational tools for non-US traders · not directed at US persons.
How it works
What this calculator models
This calculator is for CFD-style prop challenges that use account equity percentages. It tests each simulated path against a profit target, daily loss limit, total loss limit, optional trailing drawdown, minimum trading days and optional best-day share cap.
How the Monte Carlo works
Each path starts with the account size you enter. For every day, the engine samples a trade count around your trades-per-day input, then marks each trade as a win or loss from the win rate. A win adds risk amount × R; a loss subtracts the fixed risk amount. After each trade, the same CFD challenge engine checks daily and total drawdown lines.
The simulation uses 10,000 paths and a deterministic seed. The same inputs should therefore produce the same output, which makes the result easier to audit and share.
Rules checked on each path
- Profit target. The account must reach the target equity before the max-day window ends.
- Daily loss. The daily floor is measured from the day opening equity.
- Total drawdown. Static drawdown uses the initial balance. Trailing drawdown follows the end-of-day equity high and can optionally lock at the initial balance.
- Minimum days. A path can touch the target early but only passes after the minimum trading days condition is met.
- Best-day cap. When enabled, the tool reports whether one profitable day accounts for too much of net profit.
Important limits
Preset values are only starting points. Prop firm terms change, and different account sizes or phases can use different rules. Verify the current rules on the firm's own site before relying on any output. PipGauge is for education, is oriented to non-US users, and does not provide financial advice.
Frequently asked questions
Is this a prediction of passing a prop challenge?
No. The pass rate is a model estimate under the assumptions you enter. Live results can differ because market conditions, execution, spreads, discipline and rule interpretation can all change the path.
Which prop rules are supported?
This version supports CFD account-equity rules: profit target, daily loss, static or trailing total drawdown, minimum trading days and optional best-day share cap.
Why use a deterministic seed?
A fixed seed makes the Monte Carlo reproducible. If two people use the same inputs, they should see the same estimate, which is useful for checking and sharing assumptions.
Should I use the presets as official rules?
No. Presets are convenience starting points. Always check the current prop firm rules, phase, account size and country availability on the firm's site before making a decision.
What does EV per attempt mean?
It is
pass rate × estimated first payout - challenge fee. It is a simplified expected-value line for the inputs, not a full business case for buying a challenge.